Friday, January 9, 2009

The Bush Recession: Worst Job Market Since the Depression

2008 ended as the worst year for job losses since the demobilization from WWII. The widely-stated (but wildly undercounting) U3 index jumped to 7.2%. Some economists are expecting annualized GDP decline of 2.5% for the next 18-24 months. Others expect U3 to hit 10%, which is roughly approaching depression-level numbers, since U3 discounts discouraged and underemployed workers.

We're in serious trouble here, folks. The rampant speculation, the bubble economies of the last 18 years, the financialization of the US economy, offshoring and the destruction of American productivity & value add have led us to this point. Our current problems weren't caused by dumb banks making bad loans to people who bought houses they couldn't afford...that's just a symtom of a larger problem. The real issue is that America doesn't produce anything...we haven't added any real value to the world economy for decades. Instead, we've let the corporate behemoths take advantage of cheap production of goods (and, increasingly, services) overseas, and we've invented bubble after bubble for the US economy, essentially borrowing to keep our living standards high. Ridiculously low taxes, especially on the wealthy, have led to budget deficits (financed by foreign countries), a complete lack of investment in infrastructure and education, a less productive (in real terms) US workforce, and a stagnation and shrinking of the middle class...all while the plutocracy enriched themselves. An ownership society, indeed.

Actually, the past 18 years look more like a giant Ponzi scheme. Bernie Madoff's got nothing on Reaganomics. Horation Alger is dead.

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